Bang. And they’re off. It’s Dean into the first corner, with Gephardt on the outside, trailed closely by Kerry. Looks like Dean’s picking up speed now. No, wait. Gephardt appears to be slashing at Dean with his crop, and Kerry’s joining in. Edwards and Kerry are moving up the outside. This is still a four-way race going into the final stretch. But no, Gephardt and Dean are dropping back. It’s Kerry by a nose over Edwards. Kerry by a nose, Kerry by a nose, Kerry by a nose.
Ok, so maybe it’s not that kind of four-way race, but for some of the candidates, the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19 held that level of intensity.
“There’s a larger field of candidates generating more interest among more voters. And there’s more overall interest in the campaign than ever before, based on our total antipathy to the Bush administration,” said Iowa Democratic chairman Gordon Fischer, according to CNN. “We’ve never had organizations on the ground like this.”
The Iowa caucuses are open discussions where the people of Iowa choose which candidate they want as a nominee for president. The voters in each of Iowa’s 1,993 precincts split into groups representing each candidate, with an additional group for uncommitted people. If a group has over 15% of the people attending, they deem it big enough to send delegates on to the county, congressional and state caucuses later on in the year. If, however, the group is not deemed viable, the people in that group may then go join another group.
The open forum is not really what makes Iowa so important, however.
Neither is its predictive power. According to CNN, since 1972 the Iowa Democratic nominee has only been the national nominee four out of seven times, and the president once. Go Jimmy Carter, go.
Clearly Sen. Joseph Lieberman and retired Gen. Wesley Clark know this, since they have chosen to campaign in New Hampshire, rather than Iowa.
However, since the caucus happens so early in the game, a strong showing in Iowa can lend influence for later primaries and show who doesn’t have enough support to win the nomination.
For instance, Sen. John Kerry, who took the primary with 38% of the caucus to Sen. Edwards’ 32% and Gov. Dean’s 18% is expected to get a boost going into the New Hampshire primary.
Perhaps this explains the vehemence with which candidates attacked each other in the week leading up to the vote.
“Don’t go (to the caucuses) to send America a message,” said Sen. John Kerry, according to CNN. “Go there and send America a president of the United States.”
That same hour, Gov. Dean said in a speech, “It’s not enough to send a new president. We’ve got to change Washington. And you’re not going to change Washington unless you send somebody who’s going to stand up to the special interests and corporations who have been running the country under.”
Gephardt and Dean, seen as early front-runners, engaged in a slew of attack ads on each other’s qualifications.
Only Sen. John Edwards has refused to engage in that sort of negative campaigning.
“There is so much energy and excitement and momentum behind this campaign right now, and it’s for a very simple reason,” Edwards said. “This campaign is not based on the politics of cynicism. It’s based on the politics of hope, the politics of what’s possible.”
Of course, voters at the caucus also voted on the issues. According to a Nov. 14 poll done by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and published by the Des Moines Register, 40% of polled voters said that the economy and jobs were the most important issue for them in the coming election. Iowa has been hit hard by the recent downturn in manufacturing jobs. Also high on the list were the Iraq war and its aftermath at 19%, health care at 17%, and education at 10%.
The biggest issue the night of the actual caucus, however, seemed to be who could beat George Bush in November.
“We need to beat George Bush. That’s the number one thing,” said a man with a weathered face and determined voice to a friend of his in Dubuque Iowa, broadcast live on C-Span.
“Dick Gephardt can win. He can deliver Ohio, he can deliver Missouri,” insisted one of Gephardt’s supporters in Debuque.
It turns out that not many people agreed with Gephardt’s outspoken supporter. Gephardt received only 11% of the vote, where he expected to win. That night he gave his concession speech, and dropped out of the race.
CNN experts suggest that Iowa voters disliked Gephardt’s negative ads, and that he relied too heavily on the power of the unions to get people out to vote for him.
See sidebars for where the leaders from the caucus stand on these issues.
Jobs and the Economy: Dean emphasizes re-balancing the budget, claiming that Bush’s tax cuts carry huge future burdens as we go into debt.He rests on his 11 consecutive balanced budgets as governor. He wants to create jobs by proposing a two-year, $100 billion “Fund to Restore America,” designed to add more than one million new jobs in hard hit areas through investing in American infrastructure, like roads and schools.
Iraq war and its aftermath: Dean opposed the Iraq war from the outset, but now says we cannot just leave, so supports bringing in more international support.
Health Care: Dean wants to expand health care coverage for every person to the age of 25, and cover people below and near the poverty level and give them tax credits.” He also intends to help businesses cover health care by creating a national organization for small businesses small businesses to cover their employees cheaply, and give tax deductions to corporations that cover their employees.
Education: Dean calls Bush’s education package a well-intentioned failure, and wants to work on making standards that actually work and without taking away from some of the poorest schools.