On April 4, North Korea launched a rocket into the skies. The North Korean government declared the launch a success and said that it was a satellite which was transmitting data and broadcasting revolutionary songs. However, the United States, South Korea and Japan called it a failure, saying that the rocket splashed into the ocean after traveling about 2,000 miles. They also deny that it was a satellite launch, but rather a cover for a missile test.
“(When you fire a rocket), there are two different signatures,” said Ken Gilmore, associate professor of political science. “If you launch it into space it does one thing, if it’s a weapons test it does another. This was a weapons test.”
The launch came days before North Korea’s new parliament was set to convene. The Supreme People’s Assembly re-elected Chairman Kim Jong-Il on April 9.
Kim’s regime and leadership have drawn strong criticism, particularly in the United States.
“Kim Jong Il is just a wacko,” said Gilmore. “He’s a total Western anglophile. He dresses in Elvis costumes – I don’t know if that’s propaganda or not. He drives fancy American cars and drinks fine California wines. He’s like Michael Jackson with his own country. North Korea is Neverland Ranch.”
There has also been much speculation about the 67-year-old Kim’s health after he reportedly suffered a stroke in August. Some believe that the rocket launch was designed to bolster his image.
“This guy came back, he wants to show the world he’s in charge, he’s healthy,” said George Guo, associate professor of political science. “(He also wants to) show the country that he’s in charge, that the country is still united.”
The launch may also have been used for gains in North Korea’s international relations, particularly in respect to embargos in place against the country.
“(This) will get for them a better position to negotiate with the U.S., otherwise the U.S. doesn’t care,” said Guo. “There is no incentive for the U.S. to deal with North Korea but North Korea is sending the message, let’s go back to the table.”
However, reactions have been mixed. After the launch, Japan renewed economic sanctions against North Korea, although it did not ban exports to the country. Additionally, the issue has divided the United Nations Security Council: the United States and Japan have pushed for a strong response, while China and Russia have urged restraint.
This led to the five permanent members of the Security Council, along with Japan, drafting a statement decrying the launch and declaring it in violation of a 2006 U.N. resolution prohibiting North Korea from testing missiles or nuclear weapons.
This condemnation stems from the fear that if North Korea develops and tests such technology, it may lead to the country actually using the weapons.
“The U.S. is concerned with the capabilities of that kind of launch missile, how far it can go, whether or not it can bring a warhead, a long-range warhead, to U.S. soil,” said Guo.
However, many believe that despite their advances in weapons technology, North Korea is unlikely to actually use its missiles to attack another country.
“It’s like being baited with a flotilla of fruit flies, pestering you, baiting you, but posing no real threat,” said Robert Duncan, assistant professor of political science.